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SYMPOSIA
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•••As of February 1, 2002
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| Dealing With Global Change |
Is Extreme Weather Now Better Understood and Predicted?
Friday, February 15, 2002 9:00 a.m. - 12:00 noon |
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| Krishna Ramanujan, Science Systems and Applications Inc., NASA Goddard Space Flight Center |
| Severe weather events happen all over the world and they may occur with a higher frequency with a warming global climate. Like the United States, many nations face tornadoes, hurricanes, El Niño and La Niña-generated extremes and flooding events. Preparation for severe weather is taken on personal, local, and regional scales, but are extreme events predicted with greater accuracy? In this session, scientists will explain how the latest advances in severe weather detection may save lives and property. New satellite data, discoveries and modeling systems have made improvements in forecasting hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events that produce extremes on a global scale. Satellite imagery and data are being used to see hidden lightning not visible to the naked eye, and may provide as much as a 50% increase in severe storm warning lead time. New technology can detect tropical depressions forming before they can be seen. An advanced river forecast service provides pinpointed location information with possibilities on future flooding. Satellites looking at Pacific Ocean rainfall may give clues to developing ENSOs and help nations make advance preparations for ENSO effects. Researchers will explain how and why these findings will contribute to better prediction of weather extremes. |
| 1 | Satellite Observations of Variations and Extremes in Precipitation | Robert Adler (Speaker), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center |
| 2 | Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services for Water Resources and Emergency Management | Shripad Deo (Speaker), NOAA/NWS Central Region Hydrologic Services Division |
| 3 | Early Detection of Tropical Depressions Improves Hurricane Forecasting | Timothy Liu (Speaker), NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory |
| 4 | Extreme Lightning Flash Rates as an Early Indicator of Severe Storms | Steven J. Goodman (Speaker), NASA Marshall Spaceflight Center |
| 5 | Large Forecast Centers Using TRMM Real-Time Data | Marshall Shepherd (Speaker), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center |
| 6 | Insurance Against Extreme Weather | Edward Gutro (Speaker), E.A. Kelley Insurance |
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Not Enough Sea Lions, Too Many Sharks: Global Warming Signal?
Saturday, February 16, 2002 8:45 a.m. - 10:15 a.m. |
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| Vincent Gallucci, University of Washington; Bruce Wright, Environment Alaska |
| Ecosystems in the North Pacific are experiencing significant changes, measured by changes in patterns of abundance and presence of many marine animals. These patterns include increases in salmon, decreases in forage fishes, and declines in three pinniped species: Steller sea lions, harbor seals, and northern fur seals. Simultaneously, two shark species: Pacific sleeper and salmon sharks appear to experiencing population explosions. The focus of this symposium is upon pinniped and shark population dynamics and possible predator-prey interactions. A change in the sub-arctic climate regime may be involved in this interaction. It is likely that such interactions are endemic. However, a change in climate may work differentially to the sharks' benefit by intensifying the number of successful predation events and expanding their population sizes. Pinnipeds and sharks are both K-selected species, at the top of the food chain, and living 25-50 years. Therefore, changes in shark or sea lion survival may not be observed for many years. Examination of tropical ecosystem food webs reveals that sharks occupy a wide range of niches, classified according to habitat (reef, oceanic, coastal, etc.) and depth stratification, much of which is temperature mediated. In the Alaskan system, the two shark species are also depth stratified and habitat specific. It is suggested that the regime shift in the North Pacific Ocean is affecting habitats, making the ecosystem less favorable for pinnipeds and more favorable for sharks. This is reflected by increased juvenile survival for the sharks and decreases in pinniped populations. |
| 1 | Pinniped Abundance Changes: Endangered Sea Lions | Thomas R. Loughlin (Speaker), National Marine Mammal Lab |
| 2 | Sharks, Pinnipeds and Ecosystem Dynamics | Vincent Gallucci (Speaker), University of Washington |
| 3 | CO/W GALLUCCI | Bruce Wright (Speaker), Environment Alaska |
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Deciphering the Complex Changes in Global Snow and Ice
Saturday, February 16, 2002 3:00 p.m. - 6:00 p.m. |
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| David Robinson, Rutgers University; Krishna Ramanujan, Science Systems and Applications Inc., NASA Goddard Space Flight Center |
| The ice caps, snow cover, and glaciers that make up the global cryosphere have shown signs of decline in recent decades. There is a downward trend in sea-ice extent accompanied by sea-ice thinning. Negative snow cover anomalies have dominated both Northern Hemisphere continents since the late 1980s. Small Arctic glaciers have exhibited generally negative mass balances. At the same time there has been pronounced winter and spring warming over the northern continents and a significant change in Arctic atmospheric circulation. But whether these climate changes can be interpreted as signals of enhanced greenhouse warming is open to debate. The recent high-latitude warming is no larger than the inter-decadal temperature range during this century and there are some signs that the change in ice and snow cover is also not uniform across the globe. Arctic sea-ice, for example, has retreated somewhat in the past two decades but Antarctic sea ice cover has not, and both ice covers show regional contrasts and an uneven behavior over time. This session brings together scientists studying different aspects of the global cryosphere to look at what the data is telling them about why snow and ice cover are changing around the world. |
| 1 | The Northern Hemisphere's Spring Snow Drought | David Robinson (Speaker), Rutgers University |
| 2 | Shrinking Glaciers and Rising Sea Level: Has the Impact Been Underestimated? | Mark F. Meier (Speaker), University of Colorado |
| 3 | The Puzzle of Polar Sea-Ice Changes | Claire L. Parkinson (Speaker), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center |
| 4 | New Observations of a Continent of Ice | Robert Bindschadler (Speaker), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center |
| 5 | What a Splintering Ice Shelf Means | Ted Scambos (Speaker), University of Colorado |
| 6 | Recent Changes in Northern High Latitudes: Synthesis of Observations and Comparisons with Model Predictions | Mark C. Serreze (Speaker), University of Colorado |
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The Big Climate Impact of Tiny Particles
Sunday, February 17, 2002 3:00 p.m. - 6:00 p.m. |
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| Yoram J. Kaufman, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center |
| Aerosols, the tiny atmospheric particles well-known as a human health hazard in air pollution, are increasingly being studied for their contribution to changes in the environment. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted the various complex effects that different types of aerosols have on climate – from adding to the greenhouse effect to changing the reflective properties of clouds and the great uncertainties in how large those effects are on climate warming. Recent studies have also shown how aerosols from massive fires and air pollution can suppress regional rainfall. The realization that anthropogenic aerosols can substantially alter precipitation patterns raises the issue of our impact on one of the most economically important climate factors: water availability and quality. Scientists have had difficulty measuring aerosols on a global basis because of their diverse physical characteristics and relatively short residence times in the atmosphere. To counter this problem, researchers have recently conducted large-scale experiments to study the complex interactions of aerosols and climate. Along with new global observations from a new generation of sensors on such missions as NASA’s Terra spacecraft, new insights are emerging. This session presents the latest results from major field campaigns in Africa, South America, and the Indian Ocean; new observations from space; and the implications of aerosol research on climate change policy strategies. |
| 1 | Remote Sensing of Aerosols and Their Impact on Climate | Yoram J. Kaufman (Speaker), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center |
| 2 | Aerosols Over Africa | Harold J. Annegarn (Speaker), University of the Witwatersrand |
| 3 | Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation Connections in Amazonia | Paulo Artaxo (Speaker), Universidade de Sao Paulo |
| 4 | Absorbing Aerosols and Climate Change: Inferences from the Indian Ocean Experiment | V. Ramanathan (Speaker), University of California-San Diego |
| 5 | Aerosol-Induced Changes in Precipitation and Global Circulation | Daniel Rosenfeld (Speaker), Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel |
| 6 | The Role of Aerosol Science in Climate Change Policy | James Hansen (Speaker), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies |
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Climate Change: Integrating Science, Economics and Policy
Sunday, February 17, 2002 9:00 a.m. - 12:00 noon |
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| Ronald G. Prinn, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Richard C. J. Somerville, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California-San Diego |
| Responding to the risk of global warming is one of the greatest environmental challenges facing the world in this new century. Forecasting climate requires projections of economic and technical activity, and resultant emissions of climate-relevant gases over the next century. These emissions, when input into models of atmospheric chemistry, climate (ocean, atmosphere and land processes) and ecosystems, yield predictions of future changes in atmospheric composition, climate, and land vegetation. These various forecasts
have significant uncertainty due to incomplete knowledge or capability to simulate the critical processes in the component prediction models. The range of possible outcomes is wide: from relatively small to very large and alarming. The challenge to society is to devise an economically sensible and politically acceptable policy in the face of these uncertainties which will lower the risk of detrimental harm to natural and human systems to acceptable levels. This symposium leads the audience through the central issues in the social
and natural sciences and illuminates possible policy pathways. |
| 1 | Recent research toward improving the realism of climate models | Richard C. J. Somerville (Speaker), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California-San Diego |
| 2 | Forecasting Human Activity and Greenhouse Gas Emissions | James Edmonds (Speaker), Batelle-PNL |
| 3 | Predicting Climate Change | Robert E. Dickinson (Speaker), Georgia Tech |
| 4 | Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystems | Jerry M. Melillo (Speaker), Marine Biological Laboratory |
| 5 | Uncertainty in Climate Forecasts | Peter Stone (Speaker), Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| 6 | Public Perception of the Climate Issue | Baruch Fischhoff (Speaker), Carnegie Mellon University |
| 7 | Kyoto and Beyond | Henry Jacoby (Speaker), Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
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Adaptations of Life on Earth to Solar Ultraviolet Radiation
Friday, February 15, 2002 2:30 p.m. - 5:30 p.m. |
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| Nina G. Jablonski, California Academy of Sciences; William B. Grant, NASA Langley Research Center |
| Solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR), in its roles as an agent of natural selection and creator of biological mutations, has been one of the most important physical agents influencing the evolution of life on Earth. Dramatic advances in the study of the biological effects of UVR have been made possible in the last decade by the ready availability of direct, remotely sensed measurements of UVR at the Earth’s surface. These data, along with experimental studies utilizing simulated solar UVR, have made possible the testing of hypotheses about UVR effects at the molecular, organismal and ecosystem levels. In this symposium, the creative and destructive roles of solar UVR are explored, with emphasis placed on the following major questions: 1) How did early eukaryotic life evolve to cope with solar UVR? 2) How do geography, topography and weather affect levels of UVR at the Earth’s surface? 3) What mechanisms, through the course of evolution, have been used by plants and animals to protect themselves from solar UVR?; 4) How have human biology and patterns of human disease been influenced by UVR?; and 5) What are the threats to life on Earth from elevated levels of UVR as the result of depletion of the ozone layer of the atmosphere? The participants in this symposium address these questions by presenting new evidence on the past, present and possible future effects of solar UVR drawn from data in experimental biology, botany, epidemiology, clinical medicine, and anthropology. |
| 1 | Solar Radiation as Driving Force in Early Evolution | Lynn Rothschild (Speaker), NASA Ames Research Center |
| 2 | Acclimation of Terrestrial Plants to Solar UV-B Radiation | Carlos L. Ballare (Speaker), University of Buenos Aires |
| 3 | The Floating Planktonic World: Problems and Adaptations to Ultraviolet Radiation | David Epel (Speaker), Stanford University |
| 4 | Solar UVR and the Evolution of Human Skin Coloration | Nina G. Jablonski (Speaker), California Academy of Sciences |
| 5 | UVR and the Production of Vitamin D in Terrestrial Organisms | Michael Holick (Speaker), Boston University School of Medicine |
| 6 | Solar UV as an Inducer of Skin Cancer | Kenneth Kraemer (Speaker), National Cancer Institute |
| 7 | Solar UV-B Radiation as a Protective Factor Against Cancer | William B. Grant (Speaker), NASA Langley Research Center |
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Integrating Mitigation and Adaptation as Global Climate Change Response Strategies
Monday, February 18, 2002 9:30 a.m. - 12:30 p.m. |
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| Thomas J. Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Michael P. Farrell, Oak Ridge National Laboratory |
| One of the remaining challenges in assessing possible responses to concerns about global climate change (GCC) is overcoming the separation, both intellectual and in policy attention and research funding, between mitigation and adaptation as categories of reponses. Meanwhile, questions about relationships between these two types of responses are growing, as adaptation receives more attention (e.g., in both the U.S. national assessment of consequences of climate change and IPCC). To what degree can countries and regions adapt to likely impacts of GCC rather than paying to avoid them? How would the relative costs and benefits compare? Can one substitute for the other, or will both be required? Are the two categories competitors or complements? What do adaptation potentials mean for such agreements as the Kyoto Protocol? Are the answers to these questions different for industrialized countries than for developing countries? This symposium is an effort to bridge the gap between GCC impact mitigation and adaptation, bringing together leaders of recent GCC assessments and several researchers who are conducting integrated research despite the institutional barriers. Airing these issues is a starting point toward integrating mitigation and adaptation more effectively in policy discussions, and it should point to priorities in strengthening the knowledge base that is needed to support such integration. |
| 1 | Integrating Mitigation and Adaptation: A Perspective from the U.S. National Assessment and the IPCC | Joel Smith (Speaker), Stratus Consulting Group |
| 2 | No Title Available | Richard Moss (Chair), U.S. Global Change Research Program |
| 3 | Does Linking Adaptation and Mitigation Matter for Cost-Effective Climate Policy? | Sally Kane (Speaker), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration |
| 4 | CO/W KANE | Jason Shogren (Speaker), University of Wyoming |
| 5 | Integrated Modeling of Mitigation and Adaptation Pathways | Thomas J. Wilbanks (Speaker), Oak Ridge National Laboratory |
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