Winners and Losers — AAAS Preliminary Analysis of the
U.S. President's Proposed 2004 R&D Funding

This morning in the AAAS Auditorium, Marcus Peacock from the Office of Management and Budget, Bob Palmer with the House Committee on Science, and Kei Koizumi, director of the AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program, held a seminar on R&D in the current administration's 2004 budget proposal that was released earlier this week.

U.S. President George W. Bush's budget proposal for fiscal year 2004 would provide overall increases for federal investment in research and development—especially for defense development and homeland security research.

But, "other R&D programs—those unrelated to security—would experience flat-lined funding, funding cuts, or only modest increases under the President's proposal," reported Koizumi.

In a budget that proposes record deficits for this year and next, an additional $1.5 trillion package of tax cuts over the next decade, continuing increases in defense spending, and new entitlement spending, the President's proposal calls for only modest increases in domestic programs that don't fall within the security realm.

"The result of the President's R&D funding proposal for 2004 may be reduced expectations for many federally funded science programs not related to homeland security," Koizumi said.

The AAAS Preliminary Analysis of R&D in the FY 2004 Budget, reflecting the proposal announced 3 February by President Bush, is now available online at the AAAS R&D website, http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd.

Under the President's proposal, total federal R&D in fiscal year 2004 would reach a record $122.7 billion—or 6.7 percent more than the latest estimate for fiscal year 2003. Most of the increase would go to defense development, including costs of testing and evaluation, leaving a smaller 3.2 percent increase, to $53.9 billion, for total defense and nondefense research.

After the completion of a five-year doubling campaign involving 15 percent increases for each of the past five years, Koizumi said, growth in the National Institutes of Health (NIH) budget would slow sharply, to just 2 percent in fiscal year 2004. And, the National Science Foundation (NSF) request of $5.5 billion would fall far short of the $6.4 billion authorized, as part of a NSF five-year doubling authorization bill signed into law just last December.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), officially created just two weeks ago, would become a major R&D funding source in fiscal year 2004, with an R&D portfolio of $1.0 billion, a dramatic increase of 31.5 percent over the R&D components of the agencies transferred to the new department, Koizumi noted.

Nanotechnology and information technology R&D would be high priorities in the federal R&D portfolio in fiscal year 2004 among multi-agency initiatives with 9.4 percent and 5.9 percent increases, respectively, the AAAS reported.

The 13-page AAAS preliminary analysis, including three charts, five detailed funding tables, highlights of R&D in the major R&D funding agencies, noteworthy budget trends and the budget context for the FY 2004 budget debate, is now available in PDF format in the "FY 2004 R&D" or "What's New" sections of the AAAS R&D website, accessible from http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd.

All figures in the AAAS analysis are preliminary and will be revised later, Koizumi emphasized, based on final fiscal year 2003 budget action and revised agency R&D estimates.

The latest analysis is a preview of the forthcoming AAAS Report XXVIII: Research and Development FY 2004, a comprehensive look at the President's budget for R&D in 2004. The report will provide complete coverage of the major R&D funding agencies, as agency analyses become available.

The first agency update, on the National Institutes of Health, is available now on the AAAS website.

NIH would receive $27.7 billion for its total budget in 2004, an increase of $499 million or 1.8 percent that would virtually halt NIH budget growth following a five year stretch (1998 to 2003) during which it doubled in size.

NIH R&D would rise 2 percent, to $27 billion, just slightly ahead of the 1.9 percent projected inflation rate, AAAS reported. The big winner would again be the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) which would receive a boost of 8.9 percent to $4.3 billion as NIH's lead institute for its $1.6 billion bioterrorism R&D portfolio. Congress is still considering the 2003 NIH budget, which would boost the NIAID budget more than 50 percent over 2002, to $4 billion.

Most of the Institutes would receive increases for R&D between 3 and 5 percent within the tight overall funding environment because funding for Buildings and Facilities would fall from a requested $769 million in 2003, down to $80 million in FY 2004. The FY 2003 budget includes one-time funding for facilities construction, including extramural and intramural biodefense research laboratories and NIH facilities improvements. These projects will be carried out with 2003 funds, so no additional money is requested for them in 2004. NIH would also complete an $82 million program for extramural construction in the National Center for Research Resources (NCRR) with 2003 funds, leaving NCRR the only NIH institute to see its budget decline (down 1 percent to $1.1 billion) in 2004.

MEDIA NOTE: Online registration is now available for the 28th Annual AAAS Colloquium on S&T Policy, set to take place 10-11 April 2003, in Washington, D.C. The AAAS Colloquium on Science and Technology Policy, held in Washington each Spring, provides a forum for discussion and debate about budget and other policy issues facing the S&T community. Since its beginning in 1976, it has grown into an annual institution that draws nearly 500 of the nation's top science and technology experts. The Colloquium has established itself as the major public meeting in the U.S. on science and technology policy issues. This year's Colloquium will take place at the Washington Plaza Hotel (10 Thomas Circle, 14th and M, NW), Washington, D.C. The meeting will begin Thursday morning and close on Friday afternoon. Registration materials, including online registration and continually updated program information, are now available on the "Colloquium" section of the AAAS R&D web site. Working reporters are eligible for free press registration to the Colloquium. (Send email to media@aaas.org.) AAAS members may receive discounted registration via the web site, http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd/colloqu.htm.

5 February 2003