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International > CAIP > International Scientific Cooperation Award
What Does the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change Imply for the Future
by Bert Richard Johannes Bolin
The author is the former
chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and
the recipient of the 1998 AAAS International Scientific Cooperation
Award. This speech was delivered at the CAIP Annual Luncheon
Meeting on February 15th during the 1998 AAAS Annual Meeting in Philadelphia,
PA
The agreement reached in Kyoto regarding an expected human-induced change
of climate has set the stage for some actions to be taken by the Parties
of the Convention during the next 10-15 years. The Protocol that was agreed
is, however, not likely to enter into force for quite some time yet. A
good number of the major countries will first have to get it ratified,
which may be a difficult process in several countries, not the least in
the U.S.
The scientific conclusions, that have been reached by the IPCC so far,
were accepted as the basis for the negotiations. The skeptical attitudes
stemming from a few scientists in U.S. and Europe, which were also promulgated
by lobby organizations to countries dependent on fossil fuel exports as
well as energy-intensive industries, had some but limited influence on
the outcome of the negotiations.
The crucial issue rather became the negotiations of a burden-sharing
scheme between countries, that could be accepted by all Parties. In retrospect
it is unclear how well this really was achieved. Principles for how to
interpret the concept must be worked out to avoid rather ad-hoc decisions
as some of those reached in Kyoto. Several issues were left unresolved
and will come up for further negotiations at the next meeting of the Convention
in November this year. In the meantime technical analyses are required
and the IPCC is called upon to assist in clarifying some such issues.
The inertia of the climate system as well as the global socio-economic
systems has hardly been considered adequately in setting the targets for
2010. These are indeed modest and the expected increase of the carbon
dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is going to be only slightly below
what would be expected under the assumption of business as usual.
The IPCC released is fourth Technical paper, The Regional Impacts of
Climate Change, merely a month before the Kyoto meeting. Even though it
contains much pertinent information, it is not possible yet to tell more
precisely the implications of permitting the carbon dioxide concentrations
in the atmosphere to rise further. Such information are necessary to get
acceptance of more far-reaching measures and will be given high priority
by the IPCC in its next assessment to be ready in 2001. It is certainly
most important to study carefully the successive changes of climate as
they evolve during the next decade.
The IPCC has pointed out specifically that substantial reductions of
greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved at no or modest costs. How this
could be best taken advantage of will require detailed analysis at national
levels. Deliberate efforts of that kind are a present under way only in
few countries.
A "clean development mechanism" was introduced in the Kyoto
Protocol. It might clarify how to assist developing countries in their
efforts to become full-fledged partners in the efforts to reduce emissions
of greenhouse gases and simultaneously aim of sustainable development.
The fact that an agreement was reached, although not as yet very far-reaching,
may stimulate the more progressive and innovative part of industry to
find business opportunities to exploit. This would be a sound, as a matter
of fact necessary, development and might pave the way for economical instruments
also to be used in future programs for mitigation rather than primarily
regulations. The climate issue can only be resolved in co-operation with
industry. Such a development will, however require great care in the development
of a market situation that is fair in view of the great differences between
people and countries in the world with regard to economic status and influence.
Pictures from the event
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