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(Note: This page will NOT be updated with projections from the FY 2009 budget
in 2008, because the FY 2009 and 2008 budget proposals do not include detailed
outyear projections.) President Bush released his fiscal year (FY) 2007 budget
proposal in February 2006. As in previous years, a major focus of the budget is
the President's promise to halve the deficit by the time he leaves office in 2009.
In order to do so, the President proposes to continue cutting domestic discretionary
spending in future years, and also to restrain defense and homeland security spending
after large increases until now. The AAAS analysis of the
latest outyear projections reveals that the Bush budget would cut R&D
funding for all major R&D programs over the next five years except for NASA's
space exploration programs and the three agencies singled out in the American
Competitiveness Initiative (DOE Science, NSF, and NIST). Even defense and homeland
security R&D, recipients of large increases until this year and projected
for increases in past budgets, would decline in the latest projections.
Federal
support for R&D is projected to increase from $134.5 billion this year to
$141.9 billion in FY 2011, a nominal increase but a 5.1 percent cut after adjusting
for expected inflation. Although there is money set aside for NSF, DOE's Office
of Science, and NIST to win substantial gains every year through 2011 to stay
on course for a 10-year doubling path and for NASA to build new space vehicles,
there are projected cuts for every other R&D funding agency. These projections
are only projections, but they carry considerable weight because previous years'
projections have proved to be accurate guides to current federal R&D funding
levels.
- March 8, 2006 
AAAS
publishes analyses of projections for future federal support of R&D, based on
information each year in the President's budget and in the congressional budget
resolution. The tables and charts below provide snapshots of changing projections
for the future of federal R&D. The analyses are only projections, based on priorities
articulated in the President's budget and the congressional budget. They are not
predictions, and they do not reflect what Congress and the President will actually
appropriate for FY 2007 and future years. This page will NOT be updated with
projections from the FY 2009 budget in 2008, because the FY 2009 budget proposal,
like the FY 2008 proposal, does not include detailed outyear projections. The
projections below are from the FY 2007 budget.
March
8, 2006 - AAAS Analysis of the Outyear Projections for R&D in the FY 2007
Budget "Future Gains Projected
for NASA and Physical Sciences,
Cuts in All Other R&D" (HTML)
(PDF version - 7pp) This
analysis looks at the outyear projections for R&D in the FY 2007 budget, with
projections for R&D programs from 2008 to 2011. For information on R&D
requests for FY 2007, go to the FY 2007 R&D page. Supplemental
outyear projections material: - SUMMARY TABLE.
AAAS Analysis of the Outyear Projections for R&D in the FY 2007 Budget (3/06)
- DETAILED TABLE. Outyear Projections for Nondefense R&D
in the FY 2007 Budget (3/06)
- DETAILED TABLE. Outyear
Projections for Defense R&D in the FY 2007 Budget (revised 4/06)
- CHART. Projected Nondefense R&D in the President's Budget,
FY 2006-2011 (NIH, NASA, ACI Agencies)(3/06)
- CHART.
Projected Nondefense R&D in the President's Budget, FY 2006-2011 (DOE Science,
NSF, USDA, DOC, DHS)(3/06)
- CHART. Projected Nondefense
R&D in the President's Budget, FY 2006-2011 (% Change from FY 2006)(3/06)
- CHART. Projected Nondefense R&D vs. Actual Funding, FY
2003-2008(3/06)
- CHART. Projected Defense R&D
in the President's Budget, FY 2006-2011 (4/06)
- CHART.
Projected DOD Research ("6.1" and "6.2") in the President's
Budget, FY 2006-2011 (4/06)
Archive: analyses from the
FY 2005 budget May 28 - Supplement to the AAAS analysis of the Outyear
Projections in the FY 2005 budget: "Most
R&D Agencies Prepare for Cuts in FY 2006" (PDF)
- - (HTML version)
- - The AAAS analysis of the outyear projections in the FY 2005
budget (rev. May 7): "Bush
Proposes to Cut Nondefense R&D Over the Next Five Years
to Reduce Deficit"
(PDF; 7pp)
- - (HTML version) - -
Projections
from previous years can be found in our archive. Supplemental
outyear projections material: - SUMMARY TABLE.
AAAS Analysis of the Outyear Projections for R&D in the FY 2005 Budget
- DETAILED TABLE. Outyear Projections for Nondefense R&D
in the FY 2005 Budget
- DETAILED TABLE. Outyear
Projections for Defense R&D in the FY 2005 Budget
- CHART.
Projected Nondefense R&D in the President's Budget, FY 2004-2009 (NIH, NASA)
- CHART. Projected Nondefense R&D in the President's Budget,
FY 2004-2009 (DOE, NSF, USDA, DOC, DHS)
- CHART.
Projected Nondefense R&D in the President's Budget, FY 2004-2009 (% Change
from FY 2004)
- CHART. Projected Nondefense R&D in
the President's Budget, FY 2004-2009
- CHART. Projected
Defense R&D in the President's Budget, FY 2004-2009 Back
to Main Guide to R&D Funding Data Page
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