(This analysis is a preview of the NIH chapter
in the forthcoming AAAS Report XXX: Research and Development FY
2006, a comprehensive look at the President’s budget for R&D in
FY 2006. This analysis contains revised AAAS estimates of NIH and HHS
R&D, different from figures presented in the AAAS
Preliminary Analysis of February 10. More tables and continually updated
supplemental materials on R&D in the FY 2006 budget can be found on
the AAAS R&D Web site at http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd.)
Highlights
- The National Institutes of Health
(NIH) would receive $28.7 billion for its total budget in FY 2006, an
increase of $146 million or 0.5 percent (see Table
II-9). NIH R&D would rise 0.5 percent to $27.9 billion, failing
to keep pace with general inflation for the first time in 24 years.
- NIH
has already fallen behind its own calculations of biomedical research
inflation, estimated at 3.3 percent this year and 3.2 percent in 2006.
- Most NIH institutes would receive increases in a narrow range between
0.3 and 0.7 percent. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious
Diseases (NIAID), home to NIH’s biodefense
effort, would do only slightly better with a 1.3 percent boost to $4.5
billion.
- The largest percentage
increase would go to the Office of the Director (OD; up 7.6 percent)
to boost OD funding for clinical research, high-risk basic research,
and collaborative research in the NIH Roadmap for Biomedical Research.
The Roadmap would receive $333 million in FY 2006 (up 41 percent), with
$250 million coming from other institutes’ budgets.
- NIH research (basic and applied) would increase 1.2 percent to $27.8
billion after a similar increase this year. NIH would fund 50 percent
of all federal research in FY 2006.
- NIH projects a decline in the number of
Research Project Grants (RPGs) for the second year in a row, no inflation adjustment for most new or
continuing grants, and a decline in the RPG success rate for the fifth
year in a row down to 21 percent. Biodefense
research grants would be a bright spot with an 8 percent boost in 2006.
Introduction and Political Environment
The National Institutes
of Health (NIH) is the second-largest supporter of R&D in the federal
government, after the Department of Defense. In its mission to promote
biomedical research and other fundamental inquiries that may lead to
medical advances, it is by far the largest federal supporter of basic
research, applied research, and R&D at colleges and universities,
and has a disproportionate impact on support for the biomedical life
sciences and related fields. Because of its support of research that
offers the hope of breakthrough advances in the treatment of disease,
NIH has long been popular both in Congress and with presidential administrations
of both parties, and benefits from strong support not only in the scientific
community but also from an extensive network of disease-oriented patient
advocacy groups.
The FY 2006 request of $28.7 billion would be a $146 million (or 0.5 percent)
increase over the 2005 budget that was signed into law in December
(see Table II-9). NIH classifies 97 percent
of its budget as R&D, including R&D facilities. (The remainder
is for overhead costs and research training.)
NIH R&D would total $27.9 billion next year, again a 0.5
percent increase. After a completed five-year doubling campaign involving
15 percent increases for each of the five years between 1998 and 2003,
biomedical researchers hoped for a gradual easing into slower growth
rates. But growth in the NIH budget slowed sharply to 3.2 percent in
2004, and slowed even further to just 2.0 percent in 2005. Tight restraints
on overall domestic spending would push NIH budget growth down to just
0.5 percent next year.
If enacted, the FY 2006 request would be the first time in 24 years that
the NIH R&D portfolio would fail to keep pace with inflation
in the economy as a whole, projected at 2.0 percent next year. In 2005,
NIH just barely keeps pace with the projected 2.0 percent inflation
rate. NIH has already fallen behind its own Biomedical Research and
Development Price Index (BRDPI), an index that attempts to calculate
the inflation rate for goods and services purchased by the NIH budget.
Recently, NIH projected the BRDPI increase for FY 2006 to be 3.2 percent
after a 3.3 percent increase in 2005. In recent years, the BRDPI inflation
rate has outpaced the economy-wide inflation rate by roughly 2 percent
a year. (AAAS and the federal government use the economy-wide GDP deflator
to adjust R&D dollars for inflation.)
Figure 1. (click
on the image for PDF)
NIH Funding Mechanisms
Most NIH institutes would receive increases in a narrow range between
0.3 and 0.7 percent within the tight overall funding environment.
There would be no clear favorites, although the National Institute of
Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), home to NIH’s
biodefense effort, would do slightly better with a 1.3 percent
boost to $4.5 billion.
The majority
of NIH’s budget is distributed to external performers through
Research Project Grants (RPGs), which are
investigator initiated, peer reviewed, and competitively awarded (see
Figure 1). (NIH funding by institute
is found in Table II-9; its budget by funding
mechanism is found in Table II-10.) NIH projects
a decline in the number of Research
Project Grants (RPGs) for the second year
in a row. RPG funding would increase by 0.4 percent in FY 2006 to
reach $14.9 billion, but these funds would support only 36,666 RPGs
compared to roughly 37,000 this year and last year (see Figure 2). Because
RPGs are multi-year grants, the number of new grants initiated
in FY 2006 would be far smaller. In FY 2006, the number of new grants
would rise slightly to 9,463, but would remain well below the 10,020
awarded last year.
Figure 2. (click
on the imagefor PDF)
NIH also projects a decline in the success rate for new grant
applications for the fifth year in a row to 21 percent next year, down steeply
from a high of 32 percent in FY 2001 (see Figure 2) because recent surges
in the number of applications have outpaced the number of grants awarded.
Although the number of RPGs has increased from 25,000
in the early ‘90s to more than 35,000 (see Figure 2), the number of grant
applications has increased so fast that the success rate is now well below the
success rates of the NIH doubling period 1998-2003 when they exceeded 30
percent.
Nearly every institute would fund a smaller percentage of proposals in
FY 2006 than in the past, despite the recent doubling of the NIH budget.
Expected success rates vary by institute, each of which conducts
its own grant solicitation process, from a low of 15 percent (NIBIB)
to a high of 37 percent (NHGRI). Among the largest institutes, the National
Cancer Institute (NCI) expects a success rate of less than one in five
applications (19 percent), down steadily from 33 percent in 1998 before
the doubling campaign. The National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute
(NHLBI)’s 25 percent success rate would be down from 36 percent in 2001.
Even the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID),
whose budget has grown the most dramatically recently, has seen the
pool of applications grow even faster so that its 19 percent expected
success rate in FY 2006 would be a steep and steady drop from 43 percent
in 1997, again before the NIH doubling campaign.
The average size of competing RPGs would increase
in FY 2006, but NIH warns that the apparent increase would be due to
an unusual number of large grants up for competition next year.
Most new and continuing RPGs would receive
no inflation adjustment at all, with an average of $347,000 (excluding
the large grants) for competing RPGs, unchanged from this year.
NIH also distributes
about 10 percent of its budget through R&D contracts (see Figure
1). Funding for R&D contracts would increase
4.9 percent to $2.8 billion in FY 2006 after a dip in 2005, primarily
because of a planned increase in biodefense
R&D contracts after a pause this year. R&D contract funding
has grown dramatically over the last few years as biodefense
research became a top priority in NIH, doubling to $2.8 billion between
FY 2001 (before the fall 2001 anthrax attacks) and FY 2004.
NIH funding of
research centers would continue to grow in FY 2006, by 2.3 percent to
$2.7 billion. These multi-year multidisciplinary commitments of funds,
mostly to universities, have grown in importance within the NIH budget
over the past decade and would hit an all-time high of nearly 10 percent
in FY 2006.
NIH is heavily involved in research training of the next generation
of biomedical researchers. Research training programs would receive
$764 million in FY 2006, up just 0.3 percent
from this year (see Table II-10). Tight
budgets would allow for only 17,442 full-time training positions, below
both last year’s and this year’s numbers. 396 trainees would be funded
through the NIH Roadmap’s training program, necessitating an overall
cut in other full-time training positions.
Stipends for predoctoral and postdoctoral
trainees would stay at 2005 levels into 2006 with no adjustments for
inflation at the top end, but there would be some increases for earlier-career
trainees and increases for health benefits, offset by the cuts in total
positions.
NIH Performers and Character of Work
NIH distributes
approximately 85 percent of its budget to extramural performers; approximately
10 percent to intramural research, mostly at NIH’s
Bethesda, Maryland,
campus; and the remaining 5 percent to management, administration costs,
and intramural facilities.
The majority of NIH’s extramural support goes
to colleges and universities; as a result, NIH is by far the largest
federal supporter of R&D at colleges and universities with nearly
two-thirds of the federal total. Because the federal government funds
58 percent of all R&D at colleges and universities, at most universities
and colleges with medical schools NIH is the single largest funding
source for R&D.
NIH classifies
the majority of its budget as basic research, $15.2 billion out of $28.7
billion in FY 2006 (up 0.7 percent). NIH is by far the largest federal
supporter of basic research, and in FY 2005 would provide 57 percent
of all federal support, a share that has been steadily increasing for
decades. NIH is also the largest federal supporter of applied research,
$12.6 billion in FY 2006. NIH now funds 50 percent of all federal basic
and applied research.
NIH would fund
$120 million in R&D facilities and capital equipment in FY 2006,
less than half the $297 million investment this year and far below $1.1
billion in 2003 as the renovation and construction of biodefense
facilities ramps down. Much of this funding comes from the Buildings
and Facilities account, which would fall 26 percent to $82 million;
in 2003, this account was $639 million because of a major investment
in biodefense facilities construction. The
B&F appropriation funds intramural construction at NIH facilities,
while in the NIAID budget there would be $30 million for extramural
biodefense construction grants. The remaining
$8 million in facilities funding would come from the National Cancer
Institute to renovate its laboratory facilities in Frederick,
MD.
NIH would discontinue a $30 million program for extramural construction
in the National Center
for Research Resources (NCRR) in FY 2006, leaving NCRR the only NIH
institute to see its budget decline (down 1.3 percent to $1.1 billion).
There was a similar proposal last year, but Congress provided $30 million,
a sharp drop from the $120 million annual funding levels of previous
years. This program of competitively awarded construction grants is
the only federal source of funding for non-biodefense
biomedical research facilities.
NIH Priority Areas
The largest percentage
increase among the institutes would go to the Office of the Director
(OD; up 7.6 percent to $385 million) to boost OD funding for clinical
research, high-risk basic research, and collaborative research in the
NIH Roadmap for Biomedical Research. The Roadmap would receive $333
million in FY 2006 (up 41 percent), with $83 million from OD and $250
million coming from other institutes’ budgets, with their contributions
going from 0.63 percent of institute budgets this year to 0.89 percent
in 2006.
New Pathways of
Discovery, aimed at funding cutting-edge research to build biological
databases and other research tools that could benefit the whole of biomedical
research, would receive more than half the Roadmap funding with $169
million, up from $135 million this year. Research Teams of the Future,
aimed at encouraging interdisciplinary research and high-risk basic
research, would receive $44 million. The goal of Re-engineering the
Clinical Research Enterprise, focused on enhancing clinical research
training and clinical research networks, would receive the largest increase,
doubling to $120 million next year.
Biodefense R&D continues to be a high priority in the NIH portfolio. NIH
identifies $1.7 billion for biodefense R&D
in FY 2006, essentially unchanged from this year. But a decline in biodefense
laboratory construction funding would allow for an 8 percent increase
in biodefense R&D grants and contracts to a total of $1.7
billion. Most NIH biodefense R&D is funded
by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID),
which became the second-largest NIH institute in the aftermath of the
fall 2001 anthrax attacks. NIAID would continue to award biodefense
research grants in FY 2006; fund clinical development of vaccines for
plague, tularemia, and other threats; fund clinical development of anthrax
treatments; and fund preclinical development of potential new therapies
against bioterror agents. After providing
$148 million this year to fund extramural construction for biosafety
level (BSL) 3 and 4 laboratories around the nation, NIAID would ramp
down to $30 million next year. In addition to funds in the NIH budget,
there would be an additional $97 million in funds from the Office of
the (HHS) Secretary (see Departmental Management in Table
II-8) for NIH to spend on developing medical countermeasures against
nuclear, radiological, and chemical terrorist attacks, nearly double
this year’s funding level because of the introduction of chemical countermeasures
to the 2006 program.
HIV/AIDS research continues to be another focus area in the budget.
The HIV/AIDS R&D portfolio would expand 0.4 percent to reach $2.9
billion. The majority ($1.5 billion) of this research would be funded
by NIAID, the lead institute for AIDS research. The highest priority
in the FY 2006 portfolio would be continuing efforts to develop an AIDS
vaccine, including $34 million to support the expansion of the Global
HIV Vaccine Enterprise. Included in the FY 2006 budget is $100 million
to be transferred to the Global Fund to Fight HIV/AIDS, Malaria, and Tuberculosis – an international
public-private partnership to provide grants for the prevention, treatment,
and cure of these diseases.
R&D in Other HHS Agencies
Total R&D
in the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) would be $29.1
billion in FY 2006, an increase of just 0.2 percent driven primarily
by the NIH budget (see Table II-8). Under
extremely tight budget conditions, NIH would be the only HHS unit to
receive an increase in its R&D portfolio next year. R&D in the
Office of the Secretary would decline 11 percent down to $122 million,
most of which would be transferred to NIH for medical countermeasures
(see above), with the remainder going to the Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention (CDC) for anthrax vaccine research and biosurveillance
R&D.
Outlook and Historical Trends
NIH has enjoyed
steady budget growth over the past several decades, as shown in Figure
3, but growth accelerated sharply after FY 1998 and continued to FY
2003 during the five-year NIH doubling campaign. Growth slowed down
to just ahead of the inflation rate in FY 2004 and 2005, but NIH would
fall behind inflation in the 2006 request for the first time since 1982.
There will be tremendous political pressure for Congress to approve
an increase for NIH of at least the 2.0 percent expected inflation rate,
but lawmakers will face tight restraints on overall domestic discretionary
spending. In the 2005 budget, under similar conditions, the final NIH
appropriation was below the request. A similar scenario could play out
in the 2006 appropriations process.
Figure 3. (click
on the image for PDF)
- March 4, 2005
(More materials on R&D in the FY 2006 budget, historical data and
charts, and more information on AAAS Report XXX: R&D FY 2006,
can be found on the AAAS R&D web site at http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd.)
AAS R&D Budget and Policy Program
1200 New York Ave, NW
Washington, DC 20005
(202) 326-6607; -6600
www.aaas.org/spp/rd
