Highlights
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The National Science Foundation (NSF) budget, after declining in
2005, rebounds to $5.6 billion in 2006, a 3.0 percent increase after
a similarly-sized cut last year (see Table). But inflation and new
costs for polar icebreakers leave NSF with less money in real terms
than in 2004, and leave the agency far short of the $8.5 billion authorized
by law.
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In the final congressional budget, NSF R&D funding ends up slightly
higher than 2004 with $4.2 billion, 2.7 percent more than 2005 after
a cut last year (see Table). But
the supposedly final budget could be subject to an across-the-board
cut in coming weeks of up to 2 percent, nearly erasing the gain.
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The main Research and Related Activities (R&RA) account totals $4.4
billion, an increase of 3.7 percent, but much of the increase goes to
Polar Programs to pay for polar icebreakers formerly paid for by the
Coast Guard. Most NSF research directorates receive increases
between 2 and 4 percent in 2006 (see Table), bringing their budgets
barely above 2004 levels.
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Most of NSF’s education and training programs suffer steep cuts for
the second year in a row.
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The modest increases for the research directorates
after a cut last year continue to squeeze NSF funding of competitively
awarded research grants. NSF expects to make awards to just one
in five applications in 2006.
NSF R&D in FY 2006 Conference Appropriations
On November 7, congressional
appropriators released the conference report (final agreement) for the
FY 2006 Science, State, Justice, and Commerce appropriations bill (HR
2862), setting the stage for final congressional approval and a presidential
signature in the next week. But a later appropriations bill may impose
across-the-board cuts of up to 2 percent on all programs, even after
the bill is signed into law. Congress gives NSF a total budget of
$5.6 billion in FY 2006, an increase of 3.0 percent or $165 million
(see Table). While the total falls far short of an NSF authorization
bill calling for a doubling of the NSF budget between FY 2002 and FY
2007 (see Figure 1), it does represent a slight improvement from the
budget request and a rebound from a budget cut in 2005. In real terms,
however, the $5.6 billion total is a loss of nearly 4 percent to inflation
from the same $5.6 billion 2004 total, and the 2006 total includes $48
million in polar icebreaking costs previously funded by the Coast Guard.
(For details of R&D in the FY 2006 request, please see Chapter 7
of AAAS Report XXX: R&D
FY 2006 or the February 28 AAAS R&D
Funding Update.)
Figure 1. (click on the image for PDF)
Because
of an extensive reorganization of appropriations bill jurisdictions,
in FY 2006 NSF and the National Aeronautics and
Space Administration (NASA) are funded for the first time with the
Departments of Commerce, Justice, and State.
NSF and NASA were formerly funded in the now defunct VA-HUD appropriations
bill alongside the Departments of Veterans Affairs and Housing/Urban
Development. As a result, the former Commerce, Justice, and State appropriations
bill now has “Science” in its name. The conference report contains an
across-the-board cut of 0.28 percent to get the bill’s totals under
the congressional target, in advance of a larger across-the-board cut
for all domestic programs of up to 2 percent that is expected to be
included in the last FY 2006 appropriations bill. (All figures in this
analysis reflect the 0.28 percent cut.)
An
NSF authorization bill calling for a doubling of the NSF budget between
FY 2002 and FY 2007 was signed into law in December 2002 at a time when
the federal budget had just come from four years of surpluses, but with
the return of budget deficits NSF appropriations have fallen far short
of authorized amounts (see Figure 1). The
gap widens in FY 2006 to nearly $3 billion, the distance between the
$5.6 billion appropriation and the $8.5 billion authorized level, putting
the NSF doubling goal well out of reach in these tough budgetary times.
NSF’s R&D funding, which excludes NSF’s
education and training activities and overhead costs (such as the polar
icebreaking costs), totals $4.2 billion, an increase of $108 million
or 2.7 percent that brings the R&D total slightly above 2004 levels
after a dip in 2005 (see Table and Figure 2). But
a later across-the-board cut could erase the slight gain, and even the
current 2006 appropriation is a loss of about 4 percent from 2004 due
to inflation.
Figure 2. (click on the image for PDF)
NSF’s
main Research and Related Activities
(R&RA) account does relatively well in a tough budget year, receiving
$4.4 billion in 2006, an increase of $155 million or 3.7 percent. Within
R&RA, the largest increase is a 13.4 percent boost to Polar Programs to
$391 million, but the entire increase goes to fund a transfer of $48 million
in non-R&D Coast Guard costs for icebreakers to the NSF budget.
Icebreaker ships necessary for research access to the Arctic and Antarctic have
traditionally been funded by the Coast Guard, but NSF now takes over funding
for these ships. Many in the polar research community are concerned about the
financial implications of this transfer, partly for the extra costs but mostly
because of the far larger costs looming in the future to renovate or replace
these aging icebreakers within a tight NSF budget. Although NSF will pay the
Coast Guard to keep operating these icebreakers in 2006, Congress gives NSF the
task of making other arrangements if the Coast Guard is unable to do so in
future years.
Most
of NSF’s research directorates receive increases between 2 and 4 percent
to bring funding just above 2004 levels following cuts in 2005 (see
Table).
Congress
trims the request for the Major Research
Equipment and Facilities Construction (MREFC) account, but still provides a
$19 million boost over the current funding level to $193 million. Congress
agrees with the NSF proposal to have no new starts in FY 2006, and funds four
out of the five existing projects. While the Scientific Ocean Drilling Vessel,
the Atacama Large Millimeter Array, EarthScope, and the IceCube Neutrino
Observatory projects receive close to the requested amounts, the Rare Symmetry
Violating Processes (RSVP) project is left out of the money in protest over
escalating cost estimates.
Most
NSF education and training programs suffer cuts for the second year
in a row, although Congress manages to moderate even steeper cuts in
the request. NSF proposed an Education
and Human Resources (EHR) budget of just $737 million, down a dramatic
$104 million after an identical cut in the 2005 budget. Congress adds
back $68 million for a budget of $805 million, still 4.4 percent below
FY 2005. Although Congress protests the Bush Administration’s efforts
to transition the Math and Science Partnerships (MSP) program from a
joint Department of Education-NSF program to an Education-only one,
there is only $64 million for NSF’s MSP program, less than half the
$139 million NSF received in 2004. Elementary, Secondary and Informal
Education declines for the second year in a row to $172 million, as
does Research, Evaluation and Communication to $49 million (down 19
percent). Congress gives $150 million for Undergraduate Education, less
than $154 million last year but a big improvement over a requested cut
down to $135 million. One area with an increase is the Experimental
Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) with $100 million,
up from $94 million. EPSCOR assists research institutions and states
that have traditionally been underrepresented in federal R&D funding
to build research capacity. The program is currently open to 24 states,
Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
NSF Funding Mechanisms
The small increases for the research directorates
continue the squeeze on NSF funding of competitively awarded research
grants. The success rate for
NSF research grant applications would be 21 percent in FY 2006 based
on the request, essentially unchanged from 2005 and 2004. The small
boost over the request in the final appropriation does little to alter
this projection. ENG expects to fund only 18 percent of its research
grant applications, while CISE would fund 16 percent; both directorates’
success rates would be up from just 15 percent last year and this year.
In the conference report, Congress instructs
NSF to explore prizes as another funding mechanism for research. These
prizes, called “innovation inducement awards,” could encourage broad
participation in contests to solve specific scientific problems. Recently,
the Department of Defense (DOD) made headlines and attracted dozens
of participants in the DARPA Grand Challenge by offering a prize for
the winner of an unmanned vehicle contest. In 2006, NSF will work with
the National Academies to craft prizes and competitions relevant to
NSF’s scientific goals.
Next Steps and Possible Impacts
NSF
has enjoyed mostly steady budget growth over the past several decades,
as shown in Figure 2, but in recent times NSF’s budget has stagnated
and even declined. After declines in the mid-1990s in the push toward
a balanced budget, growth resumed after FY 1998 and momentum began to
build to double the budget over five years, culminating in the NSF authorization
bill of December 2002. But when the budget surplus years of 1998-2001
were followed by the current string of budget deficits, budget growth
slowed down to just ahead of the inflation rate in FY 2004 and reversed
with FY 2005 budget cuts. The FY 2006 appropriation barely keeps pace
with inflation now, and could fall well behind if an across-the-board
cut is enacted in a later appropriations bill. Even now, the FY 2006
R&D portfolio barely matches the 2003 level in inflation-adjusted
dollars. These smaller increases or cuts in recent years have put the
NSF budget further and further behind the authorized doubling path and
have created downward pressures on NSF grant sizes and success rates.
Figure 3. (click on the image for PDF)
NSF
is the only federal agency with responsibility for research in all major
science and engineering fields. As shown in Figure 3, NSF has historically had
a balanced research portfolio
covering the breadth of science and engineering. In most fields, NSF is the
largest or second-largest source of federal funding. In the past, NSF has
distributed its budget increases unevenly depending on then-current research
priorities. In particular, NSF support for computer sciences research has
increased dramatically over the past decade, as fundamental IT research has
grown as a national priority. NSF support of engineering research has also
grown substantially over the last decade, boosted even more in recent years
with growth in nanotechnology support. But in many disciplines, NSF support is
only now recovering from the lean years of the mid-1990s when NSF support for
the physical sciences, environmental sciences, the non-medical life sciences,
and mathematics actually fell. The recent stagnation in NSF funding could
result in flat or falling support for all disciplines.
NSF’s
longstanding leadership role in federal support of basic research continues
to have a big impact on the nation’s colleges
and universities. NSF sends 80 percent of its R&D money to colleges
and universities, by far the highest ratio of any R&D funding agency.
NSF is the second-largest federal supporter of academic R&D, behind
the NIH, and dominates federal support in most non-biomedical fields.
NSF operates no laboratories of its own, but spends 8 percent of its
R&D budget at federally funded R&D centers (FFRDCs), government-owned
but contractor-operated laboratories including the National Corporation
for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the National Radio Astronomy Observatory
(NRAO).
Figure 4. (click on the image for PDF)
Because
of the concentration of research-intensive universities in only a few states,
NSF spending is highly concentrated (see Figure 4). Seven states collectively
win a majority of NSF’s R&D funds. The NSF EPSCoR program aims to help
states that have traditionally received fewer NSF funds to become more
competitive in grant and center competitions. Collectively, the 24 NSF EPSCoR
states (and Puerto Rico) received 11.5 percent of NSF’s R&D portfolio in FY
2002, far less than California alone.
The
House and the Senate are expected to give final approval to the Science,
State, Justice, and Commerce bill shortly, and President Bush is expected
to sign the bill into law before the temporary FY 2006 funding bill
expires on November 18. But this conference report may not be the final
word; Congress is working on an across-the-board cut for all appropriations
to add to the final FY 2006 appropriations bill. The cut is expected
to reach back even to enacted appropriations bills and reduce funding
for all programs by up to 2 percent.
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November 9, 2005
(This analysis is one of a series of AAAS R&D Funding
Updates on FY 2006 congressional appropriations. The complete series
of AAAS R&D Funding Updates, including continually updated analyses
of R&D in FY 2006 appropriations, is available on the AAAS
R&D Web Site (http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd) in the "FY
2006 R&D" or the "What's New"
sections.)
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program
1200 New York Ave, NW
Washington, DC 20005
(202) 326-6607; -6600
AAAS R&D
Web site: www.aaas.org/spp/rd
