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Go to: -R&D
in the FY 2009 Budget: Physical Sciences Remain a Top Priority -The
FY 2009 R&D Budget in Historical Context -Highlights
of the Major R&D Funding Agencies -Budget
Context and Outlook: Tough Choices for Congress -Table
1. R&D in the FY 2009 Budget by Agency
-Table
2. Research in the FY 2009 Budget -Table
3. Major Functional Categories of R&D -
Table 4. Homeland Security R&D -
Table 5. R&D by Appropriations Subcommittee -
Table 6. Interagency Science and Technology Initiatives -
Table 7. "FS&T" in the FY 2009 Budget
PDF version
of this document Detailed
agency updates (available soon): U.S.
Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department
of Defense Department of
Energy Department of Homeland
Security Department of the
Interior Department of Transportation Department
of Veterans Affairs Environmental
Protection Agency National Aeronautics and Space
Administration National Institutes
of Health and HHS National
Science Foundation Supplemental
Tables and Full-Color Charts (PDF) -Table.
Total R&D by Agency (preliminary 2/08)
-Table.
Basic Research by Agency (preliminary 2/08)
-Table.
Applied Research by Agency (preliminary 2/08)
-Table.
Research in the FY 2009 Budget (preliminary 2/08)
-Table.
Development by Agency (preliminary 2/08)
-Table.
Conduct of R&D by Agency (preliminary 2/08)
-Table.
R&D Facilities and Capital Equipment by Agency (preliminary 2/08) -Historical
Table 1. R&D by Agency, 1976-2009 (preliminary 2/08)
-Historical
Table 2. R&D by Agency, 1976-2009 in Constant Dollars (preliminary 2/08)
-Chart. Trends in Federal R&D, 1976-2009(preliminary
2/08)
- Data Table
-Chart.
Trends in Federal R&D by character of work, 1976-2009 (preliminary 2/08)
- Chart. Trends in Federal R&D as % of GDP, FY
1976-2009 (preliminary 2/08) - Data Table
-Chart. Selected Trends in Nondefense R&D, 1976-2009
(preliminary 2/08)
-Chart. Trends in Research
by Agency, 1976-2009(preliminary 2/08) - Data Table
-Chart. Trends in Basic Research, 1976-2009(preliminary
2/08)- Data Table
-Chart.
Trends in Defense R&D, 1976-2009 (preliminary 2/08) - Data
Table
-Chart. Trends in DOD S&T, 1994-2009
(2/08) - Data Table
-Chart.
Trends in DOD R&D by Agency, 1991-2009 (2/08) - Data
Table
-Chart. Trends in Federal R&D, FY 1998-2009
(DOD, NIH, NSF, DOE, NASA, USDA) (preliminary 2/08)
-Chart.
Trends in Federal R&D, FY 1998-2009 (DOC, DOI, DOT, EPA) (preliminary 2/08)
-Chart. Trends in DOE Office of Science, 2000-2009
(2/08) - Data Table
- Chart.
Trends in DOE R&D, 1990-2009 (revised 2/08)
- Chart.
NIH Budget by Institute, 1998-2009 (2/08) - Data Table
- Chart. NIH Budget by Funding Mechanism, 1998-2009
(2/08)
- Chart. NSF Budget, 2000-2009 (2/08)
- Chart. NSF Budget by Directorate, 2000-2009
(2/08) -Chart. Defense and Nondefense
R&D, 1955-2009 (preliminary 2/08) - Data Table
-Chart. Nondefense R&D by Function, 1955-2009 (preliminary
2/08) - Data Table |
(All figures in this analysis are preliminary and will
be revised in later AAAS releases. This analysis is a preview of the forthcoming
AAAS Report XXXIII: Research and Development FY 2009, a comprehensive look
at the President's budget for R&D in FY 2009. More tables and continually
updated supplemental materials on R&D in the FY 2009 budget can be found on
the AAAS R&D Web site at www.aaas.org/spp/rd).
On
February 4, President Bush released his proposed budget for fiscal year (FY) 2009.
The $3.1 trillion budget projects a deficit exceeding $400 billion next year,
despite excluding most 2009 war costs and holding domestic spending flat. Within
a flat domestic budget, the 2009 budget continues to propose large increases for
the three physical sciences agencies in the American Competitiveness Initiative
(ACI), increases for human spacecraft development, flat funding for biomedical
research in the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and mostly increases in other
parts of the federal research and development (R&D) portfolio but cuts for
key agricultural and environmental R&D agencies. Defense R&D would continue
to increase, and next
year defense basic research in the physical sciences would share in the gains.
Despite tough budget conditions, the overall federal investment in R&D would
increase $4.6 billion or 3.3 percent to $145.4 billion, driven primarily by increases
in development funding. The federal investment in basic and applied research would
fall 0.5 percent to $57.1 billion in 2009 as proposed gains in the ACI agencies
would be offset by cuts in other agencies’ research funding, primarily cuts in
congressional earmarks. In real terms, the federal investment would fall 9 percent
in inflation-adjusted dollars between 2004 and 2009. R&D in the FY 2009 Budget: Physical
Sciences Remain a Top Priority
In
its broad outlines, President Bush’s proposed budget for FY 2009 once again offers
the same themes as in previous years: big increases for defense and homeland security,
trims in some entitlement programs, extensions of expiring tax cuts, and plans
to reduce the budget deficit primarily by cutting domestic discretionary spending
and by not budgeting for future war costs. There is also continuity in the President’s
proposals for the federal R&D portfolio: despite appropriations setbacks,
the budget stays on track with the third year of the American Competitiveness
Initiative (ACI) vision of doubling between 2006 and 2016 the budgets of the National
Science Foundation (NSF), the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science, and
the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) laboratories in Commerce.
The three research-oriented ACI agencies lead the pack in R&D gains (see Figure
1), followed closely by proposed gains for development programs in DOE, the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Department of Defense (DOD;
see Table 1). But in other areas of the federal R&D
portfolio, cuts in past budgets turn into requested increases this time around.
While biomedical research in the National Institutes of Health (NIH) would remain
flat, in a tight domestic budget most other R&D funding agencies would see
gains, especially when congressional earmarks, which are absent in the President’s
request, are excluded from the 2008 funding level to allow for non-earmarked 2008
to 2009 comparisons (see Figure 1). As a result, most federal R&D agencies
would see real increases for their R&D programs if the budget is enacted,
although there would be cuts to agricultural and environmental R&D agencies.
(All figures in this release are preliminary and will be revised in later
AAAS releases with revised agency data. FY 2008 and FY 2009 figures exclude pending
war-related supplementals. In many cases, AAAS revisions made for this analysis
and forthcoming revisions result in funding trends that differ significantly from
funding trends reported in the President’s budget documents. Funding trends describing
earmarks are based on the January 2008 AAAS analysis of R&D in final 2008
appropriations.) 
Figure 1. (click on image for PDF) 
Figure 2. (click on image for PDF)
-
The proposed federal R&D portfolio in
FY 2009 is a record $145.4 billion, $4.6 billion or 3.3 percent above this year’s
current funding level (see Table 1 and Figure 2).
Once pending war-related supplementals for DOD development in 2008 and 2009 are
added, federal R&D totals for both years will climb even higher. Once again,
development funding would hit a new high of $84.0 billion (up $4.5 billion or
5.7 percent) because of large increases for DOD weapons and NASA spacecraft development.
R&D facilities funding would gain 9.3 percent to $4.3 billion (see Table
1) because of large increases for NASA’s International Space Station and DOE
Science support on projects such as the International Thermonuclear Experimental
Reactor (ITER). -
Total federal support of research (basic and
applied) would fall 0.5 percent or $282 million to $57.1 billion, even after
large proposed increases for physical sciences and related research in NSF, DOE’s
Office of Science, and NIST (see Table 2 and Figure
3). Removing 2008 congressional earmarks from the new budget request ($1.1 billion
in research earmarks for DOD alone) accounts for the cut; excluding earmarks from
the 2008 base, federal research spending in 2009 would increase by enough to keep
pace with expected inflation of 2.0 percent. NIH research funding would stay exactly
flat at $28.5 billion, while most other agencies would see gains in non-earmarked
research funding. In real terms, the federal research portfolio would be down
9.4 percent from 2004. 
Figure 3. (click on image for PDF)
-
President Bush’s American Competitiveness Initiative (ACI) would once again
be the big winner among domestic programs. The three ACI agencies (NSF, NIST
laboratories, DOE Office of Science) would collectively receive $12.2 billion
in the 2009 budget, a 15 percent increase over this year (see Table
7; includes R&D and non-R&D). The NSF budget of $6.9 billion would
be a 14 percent increase, with increases approaching 20 percent for the Mathematical
and Physical Sciences (MPS), engineering and computer science directorates and
smaller increases for non-physical sciences directorates. DOE’s Office of Science
request for $4.7 billion would be a 19 percent increase restoring funding for
ITER, physics, and other basic research projects hard hit by the 2008 appropriation.
And the NIST labs would receive a large increase, though at the cost of proposed
eliminations of NIST’s external programs (the Technology Innovation Program and
the Hollings Manufacturing Extension Partnership). In a surprising development,
DOD requests a 4 percent increase in its basic research (“6.1”) portfolio to $1.7
billion, a 16 percent boost if earmarks in the 2008 base are excluded. DOD is
a key sponsor of the physical sciences, but until now physical sciences advocates
have been unsuccessful in convincing DOD to boost this investment. -
The National Institutes of Health (NIH) would receive exactly the same amount
($29.5 billion) in 2009 as in 2008; nearly all of NIH’s institutes and centers
would also get the same budgets as this year. Several biomedical research advocacy
organizations have already decried the 2009 proposal for leaving NIH 13 percent
below the 2004 funding level after adjusting for biomedical research inflation.
The number of new grants, the average real size of a grant, and the expected success
rate for grant competitions are all expected to fall in 2009. -
NASA R&D would increase to fund the development and construction of new
human spacecraft. NASA R&D, in preliminary figures, would gain 2.9 percent
to $10.7 billion, but the entire increase and more would go to two big projects:
finishing the International Space Station and developing the Crew Launch Vehicle
and Crew Exploration Vehicle combination. As a result, NASA support of research
in the physical sciences, environmental sciences, aeronautics, and other disciplines
would fall once again. -
Nondefense R&D would increase 2.7 percent
to $60.9 billion, far better than the flat funding requested for all nondefense
discretionary programs and well ahead of the 2.0 percent expected inflation
rate (see Table 3 and Figure 2). Boosts for the
ACI and space vehicles development help to offset requested cuts to earmarks and
other smaller nondefense R&D programs and flat funding for NIH R&D, but
overall the nondefense portfolio continues to be flat or declining since peaking
in 2004 (see Figure 2). -
Most R&D agencies would see increases in 2009, especially if congressional
earmarks are excluded (see Figure 1). While R&D in the U.S. Department
of Agriculture (USDA) would decline 1 percent even when $369 million in 2008 R&D
earmarks are not counted, and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) R&D and
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) R&D would fall 1 percent and 7 percent, respectively,
because of proposed program cuts, most other R&D funding agencies would see
gains ahead of expected inflation (see Table 1). Even
DOE’s energy R&D programs, coming off extraordinary congressional and requested
increases in 2008, would gain another 4.1 percent to reach $2.4 billion and the
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) would rebound from budget troubles in recent
years with a 4.5 percent gain to $1.1 billion (see Table 1) that becomes a 13
percent boost without 2008 earmarks. -
Defense R&D continues to climb to record levels in wartime, and will be boosted
further in both 2008 and 2009 when billions of dollars in war-related supplemental
funds are enacted later this year. Total defense R&D would reach $84.5 billion
in 2009, up 3.7 percent over FY 2008. Although the total in real terms would be
off slightly from the record 2007 funding level (see Figure 1), both 2008 and
2009 are likely to hit all-time highs after supplementals are enacted. DOD weapons
systems development would increase dramatically by $4.5 billion or 6.9 percent
to a new high of $69.0 billion, but once again there would be steep cuts in DOD’s
S&T (DOD “6.1” through “6.3” plus medical research) programs because of the
proposed elimination of earmarks. DOD S&T would plummet 11.7 percent to $11.7
billion, but would increase 5.6 percent if 2008 earmarks are excluded (see Figure
1). DOD basic research would do especially well with $1.7 billion, a 4 percent
increase that becomes a 16 percent increase if earmarks are excluded. -
The Administration priorities of basic physical sciences, space exploration,
and defense development show up clearly in the federal R&D portfolio by mission
(see Table 3). The priority missions would all
receive large increases, while R&D for most other national missions would
gain modestly. Proposed ACI boosts to the DOE Office of Science and NSF make up
the 15.3 percent gain for general science R&D to $10.2 billion, while the
NIST labs’ increase offset partially by NIST extramural cuts would boost commerce
R&D by 4.6 percent. Space-related R&D would gain 3.7 percent to $10.3
billion, entirely from gains in development funding of new space vehicles instead
of the broader space R&D portfolio. R&D for other national missions including
agriculture (down 17 percent) and the environment (down 4 percent) would fall
primarily from the proposed elimination of earmarks. Energy R&D would gain
4.1 percent to $2.5 billion after nearly doubling in 2008. Funding for health
R&D, the largest nondefense mission, would increase slightly by 0.5 percent
to $30.8 billion because of flat funding for NIH and Department of Veterans Affairs
(VA) R&D combined with a large increase in biodefense countermeasures R&D
in the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to $250 million. -
Federal homeland security-related R&D
would gain 10.2 percent to $5.5 billion in FY 2009, a gain of $512 million
reflecting a budget proposal that favors defense spending, and homeland security
over most other domestic priorities (see Table 4).
The majority of the multi-agency portfolio remains outside the Department of Homeland
Security (DHS), with the largest part in NIH for its biodefense research portfolio.
NIH’s portfolio, mostly in the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
(NIAID), would total $1.9 billion in FY 2008 (up 1.0 percent). The largest domestic
increase would be a $250 million allocation (more than double the $102 million
this year) in the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)
for R&D on biomedical countermeasures. DOD would continue to increase spending
on homeland security-related activities with $1.5 billion, up 16 percent, primarily
in Defense Agencies such as the Chemical and Biological Defense Program (CBDP)
and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) but with the largest 2009 increase
coming from the Air Force. Large increases would also go to food safety research
in USDA and decontamination and drinking water protection projects at EPA. -
President Bush’s FY 2009 budget now goes to Congress where the R&D requests
will go through the appropriations process. Democratic appropriators have reorganized
appropriations jurisdictions into 12 bills, 10 of which fund some R&D (see
Table 5). As in the past, 95 percent of the federal
R&D portfolio will be appropriated through 4 appropriations bills. - Multi-agency initiatives on nanotechnology,
information technology, and climate change science would all do well in the 2009
budget because of the emphasis on the physical sciences in the ACI and a generally
solid R&D budget request. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) funding
would climb above $2 billion for the first time since 2003 with a 9.6 percent
or $177 million increase to $2.0 billion (see Table
6), thanks to environmental sciences programs at NSF and DOE Science benefiting
from ACI-inspired increases for these agencies and also thanks to a restructuring
of NASA spending to boost spending on the earth sciences and especially satellite-based
observations of climate change within a shrinking NASA research portfolio. After
several rough years, NASA contributions to the CCSP would rebound with a $126
million or 11.7 percent increase to $1.2 billion in 2009. Squarely in the mainstream
of the physical sciences, the Networking and Information Technology R&D initiative would enjoy
a 6.2 percent increase to $3.5 billion because of surging requests for two of
its key sponsors, NSF and DOE Science. And the National Nanotechnology Initiative would benefit from ACI increases for NSF, DOE Science, and NIST to reach
$1.5 billion (up 2.4 percent), partially offsetting steep cuts in DOD’s contributions.
Figure 4. (click on image for PDF)
- The “Federal Science and Technology” (FS&T)
budget, an alternative measure of the federal investment in science and technology,
would decline $159 million or 0.3 percent to $61.8 billion because of the proposed
elimination of 2008 earmarks in 2009 (see Table 7).
The collection of mostly R&D programs along with education, human resources,
and other non-R&D programs, is designed by the Office of Management and Budget
(OMB) to offer another indicator of federal funding for research-oriented programs.
Combined funding for the ACI agencies, a subset of the FS&T budget, would
be $12.2 billion in 2009, a dramatic increase of 15.0 percent or $1.6 billion
when most other FS&T programs would decline. The FY 2009 R&D Budget in Historical Context
Although
high-priority investments in physical sciences research, weapons development,
and human space exploration help to keep the federal R&D outlook brighter
than the bleak outlook for domestic programs overall, the FY 2009 budget continues
the recent trends of declining federal support for research. The
federal investment in basic and applied research would fall in real terms (see
Figure 3) if the FY 2009 budget is enacted, continuing a downward slide that began
after 2004. Federal research did very well between 1998 and 2003 because of
the campaign to double the budget of NIH, the largest federal supporter of research.
Other agencies also increased their research investments in that time period because
a string of budget surpluses freed up resources for domestic appropriations. But
with the return of budget deficits in 2002 followed by restraints on domestic
spending thereafter, growth in research funding for NIH and other domestic agencies
slowed in 2004 and then reversed. At the same time, DOD research support lagged
as the Pentagon went to war in 2003 and shifted resources away from research toward
near-term projects, and NASA research fell even within a stable R&D budget
as it shifted resources from research to development. As a result, federal support
for research is now in decline, with potential gains in the physical sciences
more than offset by eroding support for biomedical research and other disciplines.
The 2009 budget would continue the downward slide in federal research funding
and leave the federal research portfolio 9.4 percent below the 2004 level in inflation-adjusted
dollars. Federal
research investments are shrinking as a share of the U.S. economy, just as other
nations are increasing their investments. As shown in Figure 4, the federal
R&D investment exceeded 1 percent of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) until
recently, buoyed by big increases in weapons development, but is now declining
sharply. Federal investments in development, mostly in DOD, have held steady as
a share of the economy, but the federal research/GDP ratio is in free fall down
to a projected 0.38 percent in 2009, below the long-term historical average of
0.4 percent after gains in the late 1990s. Despite an increasingly technology-based
economy and a growing recognition among policymakers that federal research investments
are the seed corn for future technology-based innovations, the U.S. government research investment has so far failed
to match the new realities despite the rallying points of innovation and the American
Competitiveness Initiative, and has also failed to match the competition. Asian
nations are dramatically increasing their government research investments: both
China and South Korea, for example, are boosting government research
by 10 percent or more annually. Highlights of the Major R&D Funding Agencies
(Complete
coverage of the major R&D funding agencies will be available in the forthcoming
AAAS Report XXXIII: R&D FY 2009
and on the AAAS R&D web site in agency updates. All figures in this analysis
are preliminary, and will be revised in later releases.) -
The National Institutes
of Health (NIH) would receive exactly the same
amount in 2009 as in 2008, a total of $29.5 billion (up 0.0 percent). Most of
NIH’s institutes and centers (IC’s) would see their budgets remain flat for the
fifth year in a row, with no allowance for inflation. NIH R&D would also remain
flat, at $28.6 billion (up 0.0 percent; see Table 1).
In 2009, there would be fewer new research grants than in 2008, the real size
of the average research grant would shrink for the fifth year in a row, and the
success rate for grant competitions would fall again to 18 percent. After peaking
in 2004, the NIH budget has declined every year in real terms, and if enacted
the 2009 request would leave NIH funding 8 percent below 2004 after adjusting
for economy-wide inflation and 13 percent below 2004 after adjusting for NIH’s
own calculations of biomedical research inflation. With the budget freeze, there
would be few new initiatives; the only growth area would be the NIH Common Fund
(NIH Roadmap) in the Office of the Director with a $534 million request (up 8.8
percent), offset by the proposed cancellation of a $92 million children’s health
research study. Elsewhere in the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS),
the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) requests $250
million for R&D on biomedical countermeasures, more than double the $102 million
2008 allocation. 
Figure 5. (click on image for PDF)
-
The National Science
Foundation (NSF) benefits from the Administration’s American
Competitiveness Initiative with a 13.6 percent boost for its total budget to $6.9
billion in 2009 (see Table 7), an especially large
increase designed to keep the agency on track to double its budget between 2006
and 2016. NSF’s R&D investments (excluding education, human resources, and
overhead spending) would total $5.2 billion, a 15.5 percent increase to an all-time
high in real terms (see Table 1). All of NSF’s research
directorates would receive large increases in 2009 after flat funding in 2008,
and all would recover from budget cuts after 2004 to reach all-time highs in inflation-adjusted
dollars (see Figure 5). The 2009 NSF request clearly favors the physical sciences,
with requested increases approaching 20 percent for the Mathematical and Physical
Sciences (MPS; up 20 percent), Engineering (ENG; up 19 percent), and Computer
and Information Science and Engineering (CISE; up 20 percent) directorates. The
Biological Sciences (BIO; up 10 percent), Geosciences (GEO; up 13 percent), and
especially the Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences (SBE; up 9 percent) directorates
would lag behind but would narrowly manage to match past funding levels (see Figure
5). NSF’s education and human resources programs would gain 9 percent to $790
million. - The Department of Defense
(DOD) R&D investment continues to grow, with a proposed
increase of $2.9 billion or 3.7 percent to $80.7 billion in 2009 (see Table
1), but both the 2008 and 2009 totals will grow by billions later this year
when war-related supplementals are added. In a surprise move, DOD requests a 4.0
percent increase to $1.7 billion for its basic research (“6.1”) portfolio, the
majority of which is performed in universities (see Table
2). Taking out $165 million in 2008 basic research earmarks results in
a remarkable 16 percent increase for “6.1” between non-earmarked 2008 funding
and the 2009 request. “6.1” funding in all three military services and
the Defense Agencies would gain, with particularly large increases in Navy and
Air Force basic research. For the past several years, science and engineering
advocates have pressed DOD, a key sponsor of the physical sciences, to join efforts
such as the ACI to increase federal physical sciences funding. “Science
and Technology” (S&T), which includes basic research and also applied research,
medical research, and technology development, would fall 11.7 percent to $11.7
billion, but entirely because DOD would not renew $2.2 billion in 2008 S&T
earmarks. Excluding 2008 earmarks, DOD “S&T” would gain 5.6 percent between
2008 and 2009 (see Figure 2). The research-oriented Defense Advanced Research
Projects Agency (DARPA) would do spectacularly well with a request of $3.3 billion,
an 11 percent increase. DOD weapons development would increase dramatically by
6.9 percent or $4.5 billion to an all-time high of $69.0 billion (see Table 1).
- The National
Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) budget would grow $497 million or 2.9 percent to $17.6 billion in 2009, with the
entire increase and more going to two big-ticket human space programs. The Constellation
Systems program to develop the next generation of human spacecraft would receive
$3.0 billion, an increase of 23.3 percent or $576 million, including a billion
dollars each for the Crew Exploration Vehicle and the Crew Launch Vehicle. The
International Space Station would receive $2.1 billion, a $247 million or 13.6
percent increase, as construction ramps up toward completion. But increases for
these two programs would leave NASA’s research-oriented programs in decline once
more. The Science portfolio would fall 5.6 percent to $4.4 billion after a modest
gain in 2008, with especially steep cuts for the Astrophysics (down 13 percent)
and Heliophysics (down 31 percent) portfolios because of the winding down of several
large missions including the Hubble Space Telescope. Planetary Science (up 7 percent)
and Earth Science (up 7 percent) would receive boosts, however, with a special
emphasis on new earth science missions. Aeronautics research funding would continue
to tumble with a 13 percent cut to $447 million. Preliminary figures show the
NASA R&D portfolio increasing 2.9 percent to $10.7 billion (see Table 1),
but there are several anomalies in the data related to an extensive restructuring
of NASA budget accounts, and the R&D totals are far lower than in previous
years. The NASA R&D data are likely to be revised extensively in coming weeks.
Figure 6. (click on image for PDF)
-
The Department of
Energy (DOE) R&D portfolio would soar 8.4 percent to $10.6 billion
because of continuing Administration support for DOE’s Office of Science (OS)
as part of the American Competitiveness Initiative (ACI). DOE Science would be
a clear winner with a 18.9 percent proposed increase to $4.7 billion for its total
budget, in an effort to keep the office on track to double its budget between
2006 and 2016 after appropriations setbacks the last two years. R&D in DOE
Science would be $4.3 billion, up 16.7 percent (see Table
1), but excluding 2008 earmarks the increase would be 21 percent (see Figure
2). Most Science programs would receive substantial increases to hit historic
highs (see Figure 6), but these gains depend crucially on the outcome of 2009
appropriations. After a significant hit in 2008 that deleted the U.S.
contribution to the multi-national International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor
(ITER) project, fusion research would total $493 million, up 72 percent, including
a $215 million ITER contribution for 2009. Basic Energy Sciences (BES) would dominate
the portfolio with $1.6 billion, up 24 percent. The High-Energy Physics program
would try to recover from sharp cuts in 2008 with a 17 percent boost to $805 million,
while Nuclear Physics would gain 18 percent to $510 million. DOE’s energy R&D
would total $2.4 billion, a 4.1 percent gain after an enormous congressional increase
in 2008. Investments in renewables such as biomass and nuclear energy would continue
to gain. Coal R&D would soar 26 percent to $624 million, including a 25 percent
boost to $149 million for carbon sequestration research and a doubling of funding
for the recently restructured FutureGen project to $156 million. But DOE once
again proposes to eliminate R&D on gas and oil technologies, and proposes
to cancel $50 million in mandatory funding for a deepwater oil and gas exploration
R&D program. -
The Department of
Homeland Security (DHS) R&D portfolio fell sharply in 2007 because
of congressional dissatisfaction with the new department’s R&D efforts, but
has since steadied and would gain slightly in 2009 to $1.1 billion (up 4.5 percent;
see Table 1). The R&D increase would be 13 percent
excluding a bumper crop of 2008 R&D earmarks (see Figure 2). Research on radiological
and nuclear countermeasures would continue to gain (up 3.3 percent to $334 million)
in the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO), while chemical and biological
countermeasures R&D in the Science and Technology Directorate would fall.
University Programs funding would fall from $49 million in 2007 and 2008 down
to $44 million in 2009. In addition, DHS will receive $2.2 billion in already-appropriated
funds for Project Bioshield in 2009, to procure promising biodefense countermeasures
from the private sector. -
R&D in the U.S. Department of Agriculture
(USDA) appears to fall a dramatic 15.5 percent in 2009 to $2.0 billion (see
Table 1), but as in past years the requested cut is due to the proposed elimination
of congressional earmarks. Congress is likely to add back earmarks in 2009 appropriations.
Excluding earmarks from the 2008 base, USDA R&D would decline just 1.0 percent
between 2008 and 2009 (see Figure 2). On the extramural side, the National Research
Initiative (NRI) of competitively awarded research grants would increase $66 million
to a record $257 million, although similar proposed increases in past years have
not made it through Congress. Hatch Act funding would fall from $196 million to
$139 million. USDA intramural research would fall $84 million to $1.0 billion,
but the cut would become a small increase after adjusting for 2008 earmarks. -
The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) laboratories
in the Department of Commerce would benefit from the ACI. NIST intramural
research would climb 20.7 percent to $446 million, while intramural construction
funding would also gain. But the Bush Administration once again proposes to eliminate
NIST’s extramural Technology Innovation Program (TIP), and would close out the
non-R&D Hollings Manufacturing Extension Partnership with a $4 million request.
In order to restore funding for the extramural programs, Congress is likely to
trim the requested increases for intramural programs. Total NIST R&D would
increase 6.1 percent to $545 million (see Table 1).
Also in Commerce, National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) R&D would fall slightly to $582 million,
but after taking out 2008 earmarks the 2009 increase for core NOAA research programs
would be 8 percent (see Figure 2). -
The Department of Veterans
Affairs (VA) would maintain a flat R&D budget of $884 million in FY
2009 after large gains in 2007 and 2008 from emergency supplemental appropriations
(see Table 1). -
R&D in the Department
of the Interior would fall 9 percent to $617 million, with a similar 7.0
percent cut to $545 million for R&D in Interior’s lead science agency, the
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The cuts would,
as in previous requests, be concentrated in USGS’ mineral resources and water
resources R&D, with modest increases or flat funding for other R&D priorities. -
The Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) R&D portfolio of $550 million in 2009 would
be a 1.3 percent cut from 2008, with cuts to most research areas partially offset
by increases for homeland security-related research. - Department of Transportation
(DOT) R&D funding would increase 9.5 percent to $901 million because
of large requested increases for aviation R&D in the Federal Aviation Administration
(FAA) and continuing increases for highway R&D in the Federal Highway Administration
(FHWA). Budget
Context and Outlook: Tough Choices for Congress
Figure 7. (click on image for PDF) The
President’s 2009 budget projects deficits exceeding $400 billion for the next
two years before balancing by 2012, though the budget reaches balance only through
large proposed cuts in health care entitlements, an expanding reach for the Alternative
Minimum Tax (AMT) to tens of millions of taxpayers, no war funding beyond early
2009, highly optimistic economic growth forecasts, and continuing real reductions
in domestic discretionary spending. In 2009, nondefense spending would be held
flat with 2008, meaning a decline in inflation-adjusted terms with further cuts
envisioned in future years (see Figure 7). Already, nondefense spending has been
flat or declining in real terms since 2004 with only a few exceptions for Hurricane
Katrina, veterans, and international needs (see Figure 7). On the defense side,
however, a war that only gets more expensive with time has pushed defense spending
to record highs in 2008 (see Figure 7). The budget assumes a sharp drop in military
spending in 2009 and future years, but only by excluding all war costs beyond
January 2009. Adding in all war costs in 2008 and 2009 will likely push budget
deficits into record $500 billion territory. In
order to make room for substantial R&D funding increases, especially for the
physical sciences, in a domestic discretionary budget that would barely increase,
the President has proposed to eliminate more than 150 programs, including nutrition
programs, health care grants, weatherization assistance, and $3 billion in education
programs, and has proposed dramatic reductions in low-income heating assistance,
state and local law enforcement grants, homeland security grants, job training
grants, and other state and local block grants. As
in past years, it seems highly unlikely that Congress would grant 15 percent or
more increases for some R&D programs while eliminating or slashing such politically
popular health, education, and labor programs. So Congress once again faces tough
dilemmas as it considers the President’s budget. The 110th Congress
will no doubt try, as it did last year, to add to the overall pot of money available
for domestic appropriations, but President Bush will once again dig in with promised
and actual vetoes for any appropriations exceeding his request, a tactic that
forced Congress to give up $22 billion in additional domestic spending for 2008.
President Bush will insist that Congress hold to his request for $988 billion
in regular discretionary appropriations for 2009, an apparent $46 billion increase
over 2008 but $45 billion of which would go to defense and other security-related
spending. Congress may be successful this year in adding money to the request
for domestic appropriations; but if not, then Congress will have a minuscule $1
billion or 0.3 percent increase to allocate for domestic non-security programs
overall. Within that total, moving money around to restore funding for the hundreds
of programs proposed for steep cuts or eliminations will likely end any hopes
for the ACI agencies to receive their full requested increases. Ironically, political
budget battles of 2008 will likely focus on the tiny $1 billion requested increase
for domestic spending, while policymakers in both parties and both branches will
barely blink at the price tags of $200 billion in annual war costs on top of $537
billion in regular defense spending, a roughly $150 billion economic stimulus
package, and approximately $50 billion for a one-year AMT patch for 2008. The
Democratic majority has already signaled that the President’s request for domestic
appropriations is once again inadequate. In the upcoming debate on the 2009 budget
resolution, the congressional response to the President’s budget, Congress will
try to add money to the domestic appropriations total so that the Appropriations
Committees can add money to individual programs later in the year. But any appropriations
bills based on the budget resolution will run into the President’s veto pen if
they exceed his request. Based on their actions in the 2007 and 2008 appropriations
bills, appropriators appear poised to support the ACI increases in 2009 but only
if additional domestic dollars are available. If President Bush succeeds in holding
the line on domestic spending, then the ACI increases will be chiseled away to
shore up funding for threatened domestic programs and to boost R&D requests
in energy R&D, biomedical research, and environmental research. An additional
complication this year is that President Bush leaves office in January 2009, so
there could be a temptation for the Congress to postpone action on 2009 appropriations
until a new President takes office in the hope that he or she will be more amenable
to increasing domestic spending. But that strategy would result in federal agencies
spending months in limbo after the October 1 start of FY 2009 waiting for final
action on appropriations, and may not result in any additional funding. So once
again, the science and engineering community prepares for a long budget season
with uncertain outcomes where promises of renewing federal commitments to basic
research once again meet the budgetary realities of tight limits on domestic spending. -
February 7, 2008
(More materials on R&D in the
FY 2009 budget, historical data and charts, and more information on AAAS Report
XXXIII: Research and Development FY 2009, can be found on the AAAS R&D
Web site at www.aaas.org/spp/rd. The
information in this preliminary analysis will be continually updated with revised
agency data, and revisions.) AAAS R&D Budget and Policy
Program
1200 New York Ave, NW
Washington, DC 20005
(202) 326-6607
science_policy@aaas.org
http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd
Go to Tables 1-7
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